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The Evolving, Magical and Dangerous AI...



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Before "super-smart" computers become smarter than humans, those machines must be implanted with "common sense" consistent with their human inventors...

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During the fully virtualized 2021 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES), Intel’s Mobileye CEO Amnon Shashua and "New York Times" columnist Thomas Friedman had a conversation about the future of artificial intelligence (AI). They all agree that before "super smart" computers become smarter than humans, those machines must be implanted with "common sense" consistent with their human inventors.

Shashua believes that if humans and machines have nothing in common, it will be "a catastrophe." It seems that when he mentioned the development potential of AI, it is not accidental that he mentioned "science fiction" many times, because such as Karel ?apek and Arthur. C. Clarke and Philip K. Dick and other writers have warned readers and scientists nearly a century ago about the dangers of malicious robots that control the destiny of mankind.

Shashua cites a relaxed and somewhat prophetic example: a very complex software agent launched by AI designed to make people happier. He assumes that the AI program will “figure out that if people’s IQ is lowered, he will worry less and may become happier as a result.”

He went on to point out: "This is a result that engineers did not expect when writing AI programs, and it will not appear soon. It may have to wait decades before people's IQs really decrease... Over time, people change We got more and more stupid, and then we were surprised that this was an AI's act of'goodwill'-see how big a disaster this would be!"

Of course, Shashua himself is an obvious AI advocate, because his company Mobileye is a leading supplier of sensing systems for smart cars. Friedman described his adventure in a self-driving car controlled by Shashua and equipped with Mobileye technology on the streets of Jerusalem, Israel: "There are no two parallel streets...There are hills, hairpin bends, donkeys, camels, and various all kinds of pedestrians..."

But Firedman said with excitement that Mobileye's self-driving technology can run unimpeded on the maze of streets. This requires a "complex adaptive alliance" between machines and humans to achieve such sensing technology. He pointed out that in fact, Mobileye worked with Volkswagen, a Jewish trainer in Jerusalem, and the Israeli Ministry of Transportation to establish an ecosystem to develop an insurance agreement for autonomous driving.

CES 2021: Thomas Friedman and Prof. Amnon Shashua on Artificial Intelligence

Shashua and Friedman also extended their conversation beyond autonomous driving, discussing the pressing challenges faced by technology developers, consumers and government authorities as AI systems become more common and complex.

To describe the rapid development of AI, Friedman used the difference between classical computing and quantum computing as a metaphor, and pointed out that today's AI belongs to the classic category. He pointed out: "Classical calculations are like tossing a 25-cent coin, 0 or 1, heads or tails. If you can toss a coin on a transistor 1 billion times, you have calculation and storage functions. Quantum calculations are like It is spinning a coin, and it can have multiple states at the same time."

Shashu expanded the above insights, saying that the first level of AI understanding is image recognition, which is a fairly basic skill. The more difficult challenge is language. And he pointed out that such a breakthrough is imminent, that is, machines can read, write and tell stories.

"This is not science fiction. In the past two years, AI's understanding of language has made great progress." Shashua said, "In the next two years, up to five years, I can foresee that computers can understand words and pass reading tests. The reading tests in high school are very complicated and no computer can pass them. But within two years I believe they can."

Shashua assumes a conversation with a computer that can read and write, and can analyze in detail the pros and cons of vaccinating the Covid-19, the computer will tell him whether he should be vaccinated, and which vaccine is best for him . The next leap in AI computing power is the "artificial general intelligence" (AGI) mentioned by both Shashua and Friedman-a type of large-scale computing that uses "brute force."

AGI can imitate human behavior and strategy, and conceive its own solutions without referring to human precedents. But Shashua pointed out that this "super-intelligence" (super-intelligence) is both magical and dangerous. From a more practical perspective, Friedman turned the conversation to AI-enabled technology, what he called "dual use" technology, and proposed what he called "the world's largest geopolitical and political issue we are studying."

Friedman provided a simple illustration: "Now, in a fast, fusion, and deep world, you have software acceleration and chip technology, everything is dual-purpose. My toaster is also dual-purpose, and if my baking The toaster can talk to the refrigerator, and I can also install my toaster and refrigerator in your kitchen and hear what you are talking about."

He further pointed out: "So when we put wisdom into everything, they will become dual-purpose. We have seen tensions between the United States and other countries in the world. If I sell chips or software to Russia, China or It’s other countries, how can I control their use?"

Friedman's conclusion is: "Then we return to the question of values-do we want healthy dependencies or unhealthy dependencies?" This question applies not only to countries, but also to human beings and getting smarter (and maybe also More and more independent) between machines.

He said that the increasingly complex "flat world" Shashua referred to is almost incomparable with its utterly confusing complexity. "Today's global complexity more reflects the complexity of nature. When climate changes, which ecosystem can survive? Those are based on complex adaptive systems."

"In human society, those communities, countries, and companies - just like the Mobileye alliance - have established complex adaptive alliances to respond to changes, and that will flourish in the 21st century. We learned this from Darwin. "Friedman concluded that Covid-19 forced CES to cancel the annual physical exhibition. "Because of Covid-19, we are not fighting against another country, but against nature. Who can be rewarded by nature? The smartest and most powerful, but the most adaptable."

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